NOAA Declares El Niño Active as Brazil Prepares for a High‑Risk Season

Overview

• The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared El Niño active on June 11 and said there is a 63% probability the event will reach “very strong” intensity between November and January.
• European and global forecasting centers project large sea‑surface warming in the equatorial Pacific through December, with ECMWF scenarios showing anomalies up to about 3–4°C above average and the WMO saying the event is likely to persist into late 2026.
• President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva announced a preventive environmental package on June 10 that includes roughly R$2 billion for Ibama and ICMBio and new rules to speed firefighting and conservation funding.
• The federal Agriculture Ministry has blocked R$461.7 million from the 2026 rural insurance subsidy (PSR), a cut that agribusiness groups say raises farm vulnerability as the number of insurance policies has fallen sharply since 2021.
• Regional experts, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, warn the South is at heightened risk of heavy rains and floods and say recovery and resilience works such as Porto Alegre’s flood defenses and bridge repairs must be accelerated to reduce harm to communities, crops and infrastructure.