Overview
- NOAA reported on September 14 that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific have crossed the agency’s 2°C threshold, classifying the 2026 El Niño as 'very strong' with a roughly 75 percent chance of a record‑level peak this fall or winter.
- Oceanographers are tracking a coastally trapped Kelvin wave moving north from off Mexico that is expected to raise baseline sea levels along California by up to about a foot this fall, increasing erosion and magnifying storm and king‑tide flooding risks.
- Operational seasonal outlooks project wetter conditions for parts of the southern United States, East Africa and sections of South America, and drier than normal conditions for South and Southeast Asia, Australia and Southern Africa, with generally warmer global temperatures.
- The World Food Programme warns the developing El Niño could push about 49 million more people into acute hunger by the end of 2027, and coastal fisheries and marine ecosystems face displacement of species and harmful algal bloom risks.
- Scientists caution that anthropogenic warming is altering ENSO teleconnections, which reduces the reliability of historical analogues and increases uncertainty about where and how regional impacts will manifest this winter.