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NOAA Confirms Hottest U.S. March on Record

Record-low early-year rainfall signals mounting drought and fire risks.

Overview

  • NOAA reported Wednesday that March averaged 50.85°F, a 9.35°F jump over the 20th‑century norm that set the largest anomaly for any U.S. month on record.
  • The April 2025–March 2026 span ranks as the warmest 12 months ever for the Lower 48, with 10 states from the Southwest to the Southern Plains posting their hottest March.
  • January through March was the driest start to a year on record, and drought covered 59.9% of the contiguous U.S. by March 31, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.
  • Copernicus reported near‑record March ocean warmth, and NOAA puts the odds of El Niño forming in May–July 2026 at about 61%, a Pacific pattern that can shift rain and boost heat.
  • Shrinking snowpack and low Colorado River reservoirs point to tighter water supplies and earlier fire danger, with officials flagging elevated wildfire potential across the Southwest and parts of the South.