Overview
- NOAA announced on Thursday that El Niño conditions have developed in the tropical Pacific and placed the probability of a "very strong" event in November–January at 63 percent.
- The EU Copernicus programme says most models revised forecasts upward in May and June, with about 75 percent of contributing models now projecting Pacific sea-surface anomalies of roughly +2.5°C or higher by November.
- El Niño shifts ocean heat and atmospheric circulation in ways that typically increase droughts in parts of the Amazon, Indonesia and Australia and disrupt the Indian monsoon while boosting flood and heat risk in other regions.
- Scientists warn the event will interact with an already warm climate to amplify extremes and that this combination increases the likelihood that 2027 could set a new global temperature record, while the WMO notes there is not yet clear evidence that climate change raises El Niño frequency.
- Governments, farmers and aid agencies are advised to prepare for higher risks to food production, commodity prices and disaster response needs as the event builds toward its usual peak between November and January and global temperatures lag into the following year.