Overview
- Major forecast centres now say El Niño has formed and many models give a high chance it will peak as a very strong event late this year, though exact regional outcomes remain uncertain.
- United Nations food agencies and the World Food Programme launched a $202 million anticipatory appeal to protect about 8.8 million people from expected climate shocks.
- Private risk modelling from Risilience projects up to $342 billion in agricultural losses and severe threats to roughly 500 million smallholder farmers if an extreme event unfolds as modelled.
- India’s meteorological services are warning of a likely below‑normal monsoon in parts of the country, which could cut rice and pulse yields and raise food and feed costs for consumers and farmers.
- Analysts say stronger El Niño years tend to cause uneven impacts—droughts in southern Africa, heavy rains and flood risk for parts of the US and Pacific coast, and large commodity price swings—so markets and aid groups are already taking contingency steps.