Overview
- NOAA said Thursday, June 11, that El Niño conditions have developed and assessed a 63% chance the event will be “very strong” for November–January.
- The EU Copernicus programme and many global models revised forecasts upward in May, with about 75% of models now projecting sea-surface warming of roughly 2.5°C or more in parts of the Pacific by November.
- El Niño typically alters wind, pressure and rainfall patterns and is expected to raise the odds of drought in parts of the Amazon, Indonesia and Australia and to disrupt the Indian monsoon.
- Climate and humanitarian experts warn the event could drive crop losses and higher food prices that hit poor and food‑dependent households hardest.
- The World Meteorological Organization says there is no clear evidence that climate change raises El Niño frequency or strength, but a warmer baseline can make associated extreme weather and global temperatures worse, increasing the chance that 2027 may rank among the hottest years on record.