Overview
- NOAA announced on June 12, 2026 that El Niño conditions have formed in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and will be monitored for intensification.
- Forecasters give a 63% chance that sea-surface temperatures in the key monitoring region will reach about 2.0°C above average, a level the agency calls ‘very strong’ or ‘super’.
- El Niño typically shifts the Pacific jet stream and can push winter storms toward the southern United States while suppressing Atlantic hurricane formation and boosting Pacific tropical cyclone risk.
- Warming surface waters will change marine food webs and fish ranges, raise the risk of harmful algal blooms and coral stress, and threaten coastal fisheries and communities.
- Regional outcomes remain uncertain for places such as Europe and Italy because local weather will depend on other atmospheric patterns, so officials urge closer seasonal forecasting and preparedness.