Overview
- NOAA declared on Thursday, June 11, that El Niño is underway and estimated about a 63% chance it will reach a very strong level between November and January.
- Several climate models, including NOAA’s CFSv2, project unusually large sea‑surface temperature anomalies in the Niño region with some runs near 3.5°C above normal.
- Regional agencies have moved to preparedness: Peru’s ENFEN maintains a coastal alert and Argentina has opened an interagency ‘Mesa de Preparación’ with provinces and scientific services.
- Scientists warn the event increases the likelihood of floods, droughts, altered monsoon rains, marine heatwaves and coral stress, and could push 2027 toward a new global temperature record.
- Experts and officials are urging fast action on early‑warning systems, water and infrastructure works and social protections because past strong El Niños have caused large economic losses and hit livelihoods.