Overview
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, in Thursday’s update, put the chance of El Niño forming by May–July at 82% and of it lasting through winter at 96%, with about a two‑in‑three chance the peak is strong or very strong.
- A large reservoir of warm water driven east by recent wind reversals has moved as a downwelling Kelvin wave, lifting surface temperatures off South America and priming the Pacific for El Niño.
- Forecasters warn that spring brings a predictability barrier because the atmosphere must weaken the trade winds in repeated bursts for self‑sustaining warming, and early signals have fizzled before in 2014 and 2017.
- If the pattern strengthens, odds rise for a weaker Indian monsoon, fewer Atlantic hurricanes but more in the eastern Pacific, and shifts toward drought, floods and extreme heat that push global temperatures higher.
- Some model guidance, including ECMWF, points to anomalies near 3°C by late year, and agencies urge early planning for water, farming and public health as mid‑June updates and wind monitoring clarify the outlook.