Overview
- NOAA has issued an El Niño Watch that puts the chance of onset between May and July at about 82% and within the year at 96%, with roughly a 37% chance of a “super” event.
- The WMO says model guidance points to a very strong episode, with a formal update due late May after the spring forecast barrier starts to ease.
- Ocean readings show a large Kelvin wave—warm water down to about 300 meters—pushing east and primed to raise sea-surface temperatures that define El Niño.
- A strong event would likely lift global average temperatures and increase odds of extremes such as drought in Australia and Indonesia, heavy rain along Pacific South America, and a weaker Indian monsoon.
- Storm patterns typically shift during El Niño, with fewer Atlantic hurricanes but more intense and longer-lived systems in the eastern Pacific, though local sea warmth and wind shear can still alter outcomes.