Overview
- Citing Thursday’s update, NOAA now forecasts 7–13 named storms, 2–6 hurricanes, and 0–2 major hurricanes for the 2026 Atlantic season and assigns a 75% chance the season will be below normal.
- Forecasters say the main reason for the downgrade is a strengthening El Niño that increases upper-level wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, which tears apart developing storms and limits intensification.
- Colorado State University researchers have sharply lowered regional landfall odds and now describe a well-below-average probability of major U.S. and Caribbean landfalls, though some outlets reported slightly different CSU storm counts.
- So far this year the Atlantic has produced two Gulf-formed tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha, whose heavy inland rain and tornadoes underscore forecasters’ advice that even a quiet season can produce damaging local impacts.
- Agencies warn the Pacific will likely see above-average activity as El Niño builds, raising the chance of systems near Hawaii, and they stress that seasonal outlooks cover basin activity not specific landfalls so preparedness remains essential.