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NIL Revenue and Combine Feedback Are Driving Marginal 2026 Draft Prospects Back to School

New medical exams, measurements and workout results have revealed flaws that make returning to college financially and developmentally more attractive before the May 27 withdrawal deadline.

Overview

  • Several high-profile prospects have already announced returns, including Braylon Mullins, Thomas Haugh, Patrick Ngongba, and Motiejus Krivas, signaling a trend of players choosing another college season over uncertain pro deals.
  • Analysts are urging borderline first-rounders such as Tyler Tanner, Koa Peat, Amari Allen, and Rueben Chinyelu to consider withdrawing after combine showings exposed size limits, shooting inconsistency, or limited on-court impact.
  • The NBA Draft Combine delivered specific, damaging data for some players: Peat struggled in the spot-up shooting drill and is reworking his jumper, Allen measured shorter than listed and finished the year in a long shooting slump, and Tanner’s scrimmage tape raised questions despite strong drills.
  • Name, image and likeness (NIL) deals now can match or exceed the guaranteed money of a mid-to-late first-round NBA contract while second-round selections often mean non-guaranteed deals, changing the financial trade-off for entering the draft.
  • The May 27 withdrawal deadline will be decisive for this wave of reconsiderations and could reshape draft boards and future classes by concentrating talent in college and creating a weaker 2027–28 draft for returning players to exploit.