Overview
- The National Hurricane Center is tracking a broad area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche and assigns a 10% chance of tropical formation over both the next 48 hours and the next seven days.
- Forecasters say the low is expected to form Friday as disorganized showers and storms and to move inland into eastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday, which makes near‑term tropical development unlikely.
- Newer model guidance shows a limited possibility the system’s remnants could re‑emerge into the northwestern Gulf by Tuesday or Wednesday and interact with an approaching frontal boundary to produce heavier rain along the northern Gulf Coast.
- Local forecasts currently call for increased rain early next week with preliminary estimates of about 2 to 3 inches for some North Shore areas and roughly 1 to 1.5 inches for portions of the South Shore, raising the risk of localized flooding and travel disruptions.
- Colorado State University lowered its June seasonal outlook slightly from April, trimming its 2026 forecast to 11 named storms and five hurricanes while keeping two major hurricanes projected.