Overview
- The National Hurricane Center is tracking a broad low over the Bay of Campeche that is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms and has a 10% chance of tropical development according to its official outlook.
- Forecasters expect the system to move inland over eastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday, where land interaction is likely to weaken it before any re-emergence.
- Models and regional offices show the disturbance could re-emerge into the northwestern Gulf by Tuesday–Wednesday and, if it interacts with a stalled cold front, amplify rainfall and cause localized flooding in parts of Southeast Texas, Southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi.
- Agencies warn of immediate hazards this weekend including fresh to strong southeast winds, rough seas, and heavy showers near the Yucatán and southern Gulf, and the Weather Prediction Center has placed parts of Southeast Texas under an elevated flood risk.
- Colorado State University’s revised June seasonal outlook lowers expected 2026 basin activity modestly, but forecasters stress that even weak summer disturbances can produce dangerous, localized flooding and warrant local preparedness.