Overview
- The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three Atlantic disturbances and upgraded the eastern system south of the Cabo Verde Islands to about a 60% seven-day chance of becoming a tropical depression later this week.
- Forecasters say none of the three Atlantic systems currently pose an immediate threat to Florida, the Gulf of Mexico, or the U.S. mainland, though tracks could change as systems evolve.
- A separate Pacific disturbance east-southeast of Hawaii has roughly a 90% chance of developing into Tropical Storm Lala and could bring hazardous conditions to the islands later in the week.
- Scientists cite a rapidly strengthening El Niño and large plumes of Saharan dust that are increasing upper-level wind shear and dry air across the tropical Atlantic, conditions that tend to suppress storm formation.
- NOAA and research groups now expect a below-average 2026 Atlantic season but warn that a single storm can still cause major impacts, and model runs show split outcomes for the Cabo Verde system with some scenarios recurving it northward away from land.