Overview
- The National Hurricane Center said on Monday it is monitoring three separate areas in the Atlantic with one area a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands holding a 60% chance of becoming a tropical depression within seven days.
- Two other Atlantic features carry low development odds of about 10% over the same period and are forecast to move into hostile conditions such as cooler water or strong upper-level winds.
- Forecasters and computer models generally show the Cabo Verde-area system moving west initially but recurving north before reaching the Lesser Antilles, which reduces the near-term threat to the U.S. mainland and the Gulf of Mexico.
- Federal agencies have trimmed their 2026 Atlantic season outlook because a strong El Niño is increasing wind shear and a broad Saharan dust plume is injecting dry, stable air that hinders storm formation.
- Separately, the central Pacific disturbance east-southeast of Hawaii has about a 90% chance of developing and could approach or affect the Hawaiian Islands later this week, reflecting El Niño’s tendency to boost Pacific activity.