Overview
- The National Hurricane Center said Tuesday the central subtropical Atlantic trough has near‑zero odds of forming in 48 hours and about a 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression within seven days.
- The system is a disorganized cluster of showers and thunderstorms located well east‑southeast of Bermuda and is not an immediate threat to Florida, the Gulf of Mexico, or the U.S. East Coast.
- Ensemble model guidance and forecasters put the chance of the disturbance strengthening into a named storm at under roughly 10% and generally steer any development northward away from the mainland, though Bermuda should keep watch.
- In the eastern Pacific, Tropical Depression Fifteen‑E and recently downgraded Norbert are weakening and expected to lose tropical characteristics, while an area offshore southwestern Mexico carries a separate medium (about 40%) seven‑day formation probability.
- A very strong El Niño has produced persistent upper‑level wind shear and dry air that have suppressed Atlantic activity this year, which explains the season’s unusually quiet peak and keeps forecasters monitoring for any sudden shifts or late‑season development close to the Caribbean or Gulf.