Overview
- The National Hurricane Center on Wednesday flagged Invest 96 off the Cabo Verde Islands as likely to become a tropical depression within the next day or two while it moves west to west‑northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
- Forecast confidence has shifted this week with some products trimming peak odds; the NHC had repeatedly placed short‑term formation chances in the high range but recent updates reduced some probabilities to about 60 percent.
- Invest 95 east of Bermuda lost its development window after it elongated and moved into cooler, hostile waters and is no longer expected to become a significant cyclone.
- Forecasters warn that El Niño‑driven wind shear and periodic intrusions of dry Saharan air could erode Invest 96 by the weekend, though the system could still cause rough seas, stronger trade winds, and localized heavy rain for parts of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean if it organizes.
- The NHC uses Invest tags to gather extra observations and run specialty models; NOAA and Colorado State University continue to project a below‑average 2026 Atlantic season because of the strong El Niño even as they caution a single storm can still produce major impacts.