Overview
- The National Hurricane Center added a tropical wave near 38W–39W on Sunday and said it is moving west near 20 kt with scattered convection between about 06N and 15N.
- Forecasters give the system a near 0% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours and about a 20% chance over seven days because strong upper‑level winds are shearing the disturbance.
- A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the Colombian Low forced gale‑force gusts off Colombia with seas of 11–12 ft and prompted a Gale Warning for those waters through the morning.
- The pressure pattern will sustain strong to near‑gale easterly trade winds and rough to locally very rough seas across much of the central Caribbean for several days, with pulses of stronger winds expected in the Gulf of Honduras.
- There is no immediate threat to Florida because the system is far from the U.S. coast, but forecasters will watch for environmental changes midweek that could alter the wave's organization or track.