Overview
- The National Hurricane Center is tracking a disorganized broad low in the Bay of Campeche that is producing heavy showers and thunderstorms and has only a low to modest chance of becoming a tropical cyclone.
- In updates issued Friday and Saturday the NHC gave formation odds near 10% in most advisories with some products briefly raising short-term chances to about 20%.
- Forecasts show the disturbance drifting inland over eastern or northeastern Mexico late Saturday or Sunday, which should weaken it before any immediate tropical development.
- Models and regional offices note the system could re-emerge into the northwestern Gulf by Tuesday–Wednesday and interact with an approaching frontal boundary to focus heavy rain across Southeast Texas, Southeast Louisiana and coastal Mississippi.
- A pressure difference between the low and high pressure in the northeastern Gulf is already producing strong southeast winds and rough seas, and rainfall guidance projects common totals of 1–3 inches with isolated pockets of 5–9 inches that could produce localized flooding.