Overview
- The National Hurricane Center on Saturday identified two tropical waves to watch in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic and assigned seven-day development odds of about 20% for a wave near the Cabo Verde Islands and 40% for another wave moving off West Africa.
- Long-range computer models and some analysts give the Africa-origin disturbance a reasonable chance of becoming at least a tropical depression later in the week, but the NHC retains conservative short-term probabilities until organization becomes clearer.
- Forecasters do not expect immediate land impacts from these disturbances and current model consensus generally shows any developing system struggling or turning north before reaching the U.S.
- The NHC is also tracking a Pacific disturbance with medium development odds that models indicate could track toward or near Hawaii next weekend, prompting heightened local vigilance there.
- NOAA’s updated 2026 Atlantic outlook forecasts 7 to 13 named storms and says a very strong El Niño will likely increase upper-level wind shear and suppress overall Atlantic activity, a signal that has led CSU and other forecasters to lower seasonal projections.