Overview
- The National Hurricane Center began tracking two tropical waves over the eastern and central Atlantic this weekend with one near the Cabo Verde Islands given a 20% seven-day development chance and a second expected off Africa on Tuesday with about a 40% seven-day chance.
- Forecasters say neither disturbance poses an immediate threat to the United States and models generally show systems that do form will struggle with strong upper-level winds or turn north into open water.
- NOAA’s updated Aug. 6 seasonal outlook projects a below-average season of 7–13 named storms and 2–6 hurricanes, citing a strengthening El Niño that boosts vertical wind shear and suppresses Atlantic development.
- Analysts highlighted parallel activity in the eastern Pacific where computer model consensus raises the possibility of a system tracking near Hawaii later in the week, prompting local forecasts to urge vigilance there.
- The season has produced only two named storms so far, Arthur and Bertha, and accumulated cyclone energy remains far below average, but forecasters stress conditions can change through the September peak and will continue to monitor these waves.