Overview
- The National Hurricane Center began monitoring the system on Saturday, June 27, and assigned a low 20% chance of tropical development over seven days.
- Forecast models disagree on whether the disturbance will become a tropical cyclone but consistently show increased moisture over Central Florida with the heaviest rain expected Monday through Wednesday.
- Some model runs project the feature drifting west into the northern Gulf and toward Louisiana later in the week, which would shift the primary impacts westward.
- Weather agencies warn that heavy rain, pockets of gusty wind, rough seas, and localized flooding are the main near-term hazards whether or not the system becomes tropical.
- Early-season frontal lows like this can form into low-end tropical systems fairly easily, and past weak coastal lows in the region have caused notable rain and flood problems even without full tropical development.