Overview
- The National Hurricane Center designated an area to watch on Saturday and gave the disturbance a near 0% chance of forming in 48 hours and about a 20% chance over seven days.
- Most forecast guidance shows only a narrow window for development and expects any system to be weak and short lived.
- Some AI and European model runs indicate a small chance of a midweek weak tropical or subtropical low that could track toward the Georgia or South Carolina coast or drift west into the northern Gulf.
- Local forecasters emphasize that, regardless of cyclogenesis, the main near-term impact will be increased moisture and higher chances of widespread showers, heavy downpours, gusty storms and localized flooding Monday through Wednesday.
- June conditions favor frontal or hybrid lows acquiring tropical traits over the warm Gulf Stream but those transitions need a tight set of upper-level winds and time over warm water so the situation warrants monitoring rather than expectation of a strong storm.