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4w ago

NHC Flags Low Chance of Tropical Development Off Southeast Coast

Forecasters say the disturbance could pull heavy moisture into Florida and raise midweek rain and flood risk as it drifts west toward the northern Gulf or the Georgia and South Carolina coasts.

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Flood Advisories and Severe Storms Sweep Through Central Florida | New Tropical Disturbance off of the Carolinas

Overview

  • The National Hurricane Center designated the area on Saturday and gave it a near 0% chance of development over 48 hours and a 20% chance over seven days.
  • Forecasts call for a weak low to form along a frontal boundary offshore and slowly drift west, with the highest rain chances in Central Florida from Monday through Wednesday next week.
  • Most operational computer models keep significant tropical intensification unlikely, though a minority of runs, including some AI and ECMWF outputs, show a small chance of a weak tropical system by midweek.
  • Local impacts already reported include flood advisories, severe storms and pockets of 3–5 inches of rain in Central Florida, and officials warn of gusty winds and rough marine conditions along the coast.
  • June is a transitional month when fronts can gain tropical traits over the warm Gulf Stream, so the development window is narrow and forecasters say to watch new model runs and NHC updates ahead of the July 4th period.