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4w ago

NHC Flags Invest 92L as Cristobal Forms and Quickly Weakens

El Niño-driven wind shear plus Saharan dust are suppressing the season, leaving 92L's likely westward drift as the chief short-term concern for eastern Caribbean islands.

A disturbance moving generally westward in the eastern Atlantic is seeing increasing chances of becoming a named storm, according to the National Hurricane Center. The next name up in the rotation is Cristobal.
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Overview

  • The National Hurricane Center issued advisories on Tropical Storm Cristobal on Wednesday and says the small storm is moving east away from land and is forecast to weaken and dissipate within about a day.
  • Forecasters designated the better-organized central Atlantic disturbance as Invest 92L and raised its 48-hour formation odds to roughly 70–80 percent on Wednesday, saying a tropical depression will likely form in the next couple of days.
  • Model guidance increasingly nudges Invest 92L westward toward the Lesser Antilles and the eastern Caribbean around Sunday–Monday, though steering uncertainties beyond that mean exact tracks could shift.
  • A separate north‑central subtropical system (Invest 93L) has a brief window to gain tropical characteristics but is expected to move over cooler waters by Thursday, ending its development chance.
  • Officials stress the strong El Niño, enhanced wind shear and Saharan dry air are suppressing basin-wide activity this season even as individual systems like 92L could bring useful rain or localized hazards to drought-hit Caribbean islands.