Overview
- The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three Atlantic disturbances, which on Monday carried roughly 50%, 20% and 10% chances of forming into a tropical cyclone over seven days.
- The leading system is a tropical wave expected to move off the west coast of Africa on Tuesday and could organize into a tropical depression late in the week if it avoids dust and strong upper‑level winds.
- Forecasters say El Niño, widespread Saharan dust and hostile upper‑level wind shear are the main factors limiting growth and that computer models more often show any organizing system weakening or turning north into the open Atlantic.
- NOAA’s updated 2026 outlook calls for a below‑average season with 7 to 13 named storms and 2 to 6 hurricanes, the basin has produced two named storms so far, and the next name would be Cristobal if a new storm forms.
- Coastal residents have no immediate threat but should watch for frequent updates because short‑term shifts in a disturbance’s organization, track or rainfall threat can change forecasts quickly.