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New Zealand Q4 GDP Misses Forecasts at 0.2%, Underscoring Fading Momentum

The weaker outturn reinforces a cautious policy stance at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

Overview

  • Annual growth registered 1.3% versus a 1.7% market forecast, with the quarterly print below the RBNZ’s 0.5% projection.
  • Construction was the largest drag on output, down 1.4%, as the volume of building work put in place fell 3.1%.
  • Rental, hiring and real estate services delivered the biggest positive contribution, rising 0.8% in the quarter.
  • Expenditure-based GDP increased just 0.1% q/q, pointing to subdued household consumption and investment.
  • The New Zealand dollar eased after the release, and the figures predate the recent oil-price spike that could influence the outlook ahead of the RBNZ’s April 8 meeting.