Overview
- An impulsive X4.2 flare from sunspot region AR4366 peaked at 12:13 UTC on Feb. 4, and no coronal mass ejection signatures have been confirmed for that event.
- The CME tied to AR4366’s earlier X8.1 flare is forecast to arrive around Feb. 5, with NOAA calling for unsettled to G1 (minor) geomagnetic storm levels into Feb. 6.
- Recent X‑class activity produced R3‑level shortwave radio blackouts on the daylight side of Earth, with disruptions reported in eastern Australia and New Zealand earlier in the week.
- Modeling during the Feb. 4 flare indicated the greatest risk of HF signal degradation over the South Atlantic and parts of western Africa at the time of the eruption.
- NOAA, NASA and ISRO are on alert, with ISRO monitoring more than 50 Indian satellites and warning of a strong possibility of radio blackouts, as forecasters also note a chance for enhanced auroras at higher latitudes.