Overview
- A peer-reviewed paper in Nature Geoscience presents simple equations that explain CO2-driven cooling in the stratosphere alongside stronger warming below.
- The mechanism centers on a “Goldilocks” band of infrared wavelengths that grows as CO2 rises and makes the stratosphere shed heat to space more efficiently.
- The analysis found that ozone and water vapor play minor roles in stratospheric cooling compared with CO2.
- The equations reproduced key patterns seen in data and models, including greater cooling higher in the stratosphere and about 8°C cooling at the stratopause for each CO2 doubling.
- Observations since the 1980s show roughly 2°C of stratospheric cooling, which the authors say is consistent with the physics their framework describes.