Overview
- University of Houston–Texas Southern polling fielded Sept. 19–Oct. 1 shows Ken Paxton at 34%, John Cornyn at 33% and Wesley Hunt at 22% among likely GOP primary voters, with 11% undecided.
- Hunt’s formal entry this week raises the likelihood no Republican clears 50%, increasing the chances of a runoff as only 69% of GOP voters currently report knowing enough about him to hold an opinion.
- Half of Republican primary voters say they would be more likely to back a Trump-endorsed candidate, compared with 40% who say an endorsement would not matter and 10% who say it would make them less likely to support that candidate.
- In the Democratic field, Jasmine Crockett leads a hypothetical multi-candidate primary at 31% with James Talarico and Beto O’Rourke at 25% each and Colin Allred at 13%, while an Allred–Talarico two-way shows Allred ahead 46%–42%.
- General-election tests show Republicans ahead by 1–6 points depending on the pairing, with Hunt posting the largest average leads and Paxton the narrowest, as the poll also registers a 7-point overall drop from 2024 in Texans who say they would vote for Trump again.