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8h ago

New Study Projects Atlantic Overturning Current to Halve by 2100

The new projection comes from models tuned with Atlantic surface temperature plus salinity.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, often referred to as the conveyor belt, relies on a delicate balance of salt and fresh water.
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Stormy ocean
An Atlantic current that's key for regulating climate could closer to the tipping point than previously thought, per an alarming study in the journal Science Advances.

Overview

  • A new peer-reviewed analysis estimates the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation will weaken by about 43% to 59% by 2100, near a 51% drop that exceeds many earlier projections.
  • The AMOC is a vast conveyor belt that carries warm, salty water north and helps set weather across Europe, Africa, and North America.
  • Scientists cut model error by 79% by constraining projections with observed sea surface temperature and salinity and by using a ridge-regularized regression method.
  • A separate study finds the circulation has already weakened over the past 20 years at four western North Atlantic sites, adding observational support for a decline.
  • Experts flag serious risks that include cooler conditions over northern Europe, harsher drought in southern Europe, higher sea levels along the U.S. Northeast coast, and strain on crops and ecosystems, while stressing uncertainty remains and calling for stronger monitoring and planning.