Overview
- Analysis of long‑term records shows that at Dassen and Robben islands about 95% of birds that bred in 2004 died within eight years, totaling roughly 62,000 adults.
- Sardine biomass on South Africa’s west coast stayed under about 25% of its maximum from 2004 to 2011 and in most years across the study period, aligning with the mortality surge.
- Researchers attribute the prey crash to purse‑seine exploitation during low‑biomass years plus shifts in temperature and salinity that moved sardine spawning away from key feeding grounds.
- Fewer than 10,000 breeding pairs remain after an estimated 80% global decline over three decades, and the IUCN classified the species as Critically Endangered in 2024.
- The government has enacted a 10‑year commercial fishing exclusion around six colonies and expanded measures such as artificial nests, new colony sites and intensive monitoring, with recovery dependent on sardine stock rebuilding and tighter fisheries management.