Overview
- The University of Bern study, reported Monday, found stress on parts of Southern California’s fault system is among the highest in 1,000 years and singled out Cajon Pass where the San Andreas meets the San Jacinto fault.
- Seismologists continue to use a widely cited 2008 Caltech rupture scenario that models a magnitude 7.8 San Andreas quake producing nearly two minutes of violent shaking and projecting hundreds of deaths and billions of dollars in damage.
- Experts stress that the new stress readings do not predict timing and remain clear that a major quake could occur tomorrow or not for many decades, so readiness actions are the practical response.
- Researchers warn that damage at Cajon Pass and along the fault could sever aqueducts, roads, rail lines and power links, creating prolonged shortages, gridlock and large economic losses for communities.
- Other recent work raises the possibility that a large Cascadia event could interact with California faults, which would expand the geographic scope of disruption even though California has long-standing building codes and retrofit programs that would still need strengthening.