Overview
- Published Thursday, June 11, 2026, the study estimates annual cross‑border moves rose from about 13 million in 2000 to roughly 35 million by 2023.
- The researchers built the dataset by combining censuses, official statistics and covariates with deep neural networks to produce yearly bilateral flows that previous five‑ or ten‑year snapshots missed.
- Regional patterns show large labour migration from South Asia to Gulf states—about 19 million people since 2010—and steady intra‑European movement, while African crises produced episodic spikes.
- The paper finds short dips in migration during the 2008–09 financial crisis and the COVID‑19 pandemic but otherwise a persistent per‑capita rise driven by demographic and economic shifts.
- High‑resolution annual flows and an interactive tool will let governments better plan services and labour policy, though the authors warn modelled flows can differ from national administrative counts such as recent UK numbers that peaked in 2023 and were reported to fall by 2025.