Overview
- The paired Science papers, published Thursday, forecast that tens of thousands of plants could lose more than 90% of their suitable habitat by century’s end.
- Modeling shows the main driver is vanishing suitable climate and rainfall zones rather than plants failing to shift their ranges fast enough.
- Risk clusters in southern Europe, the western United States, southern Australia, the Arctic, and the broader Mediterranean basin.
- Even as many species shrink or disappear, the reshuffling of ranges is projected to raise local plant richness across about 28% of land, especially in wetter areas like the eastern United States, India, Southeast Asia, and southern South America.
- A companion analysis using the EDGE2 prioritization tool highlights 9,945 unique flowering plants to safeguard deep evolutionary history at risk of loss, while the authors call for deep emissions cuts plus habitat protection, climate refuges, seed banks, and botanical gardens.