Overview
- With the treaty due to end on February 5, President Vladimir Putin’s proposal to informally keep limits for one year still lacks a formal U.S. response, and President Trump has said, "If it expires, it expires."
- New START capped each side at 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and 700 delivery systems, but Russia halted inspections and data exchanges in 2023, leaving any mutual restraint unverifiable.
- Analysts warn both countries could upload reserve warheads to existing missiles within months to a year, with Russia able to move faster while U.S. expansion is slowed by plutonium pit production constraints.
- U.S. nuclear modernization already faces major delays and costs, with the Congressional Budget Office estimating nearly $1 trillion for 2025–2034, as experts split over accepting a short-term limit or preparing to grow forces to account for China.
- No successor talks are underway, China refuses trilateral limits, Russia wants British and French arsenals included, and the Doomsday Clock was moved closer to midnight citing the erosion of arms control.