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New START Set to Expire as Russia Repeats One-Year Limits Offer and U.S. Stays Noncommittal

Experts warn the lapse will raise nuclear risks by ending verification.

Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov attends a press conference in Moscow, Russia November 26, 2025. REUTERS/Anastasia Barashkova
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Overview

  • The treaty’s Feb. 5 expiry would remove the last legal caps on U.S. and Russian deployed strategic forces.
  • The Kremlin says its proposal to observe New START’s numerical limits for one year on a reciprocal basis remains on the table without a U.S. reply.
  • Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov says Russia is ready for a world with no limits, while spokesman Dmitry Peskov warns the situation will become more perilous.
  • President Donald Trump has said, “If it expires, it expires,” favoring a broader pact, and the White House says he will set the path forward on his timeline.
  • Former U.S. negotiator Rose Gottemoeller urges accepting a one-year preservation of limits, warning Moscow could rapidly upload warheads and that inspections and data exchanges have already withered since 2020–2023.