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New START Nears Expiration as Trump Signals Indifference and Pushes for Deal Including China

Russia has offered a one-year pledge to keep the limits, leaving Washington to decide whether to buy time without inspections.

Overview

  • The last U.S.–Russia nuclear arms accord is set to lapse on February 5 with no successor talks underway.
  • President Donald Trump told the New York Times, "If it expires, it expires," and said any new agreement should include China.
  • Moscow proposed in September that both sides continue observing New START limits for 12 months, but the United States has not formally accepted.
  • Russia halted treaty inspections in 2023 and is developing systems outside New START’s scope, such as the Burevestnik cruise missile and Poseidon torpedo.
  • Experts warn the removal of caps could trigger rapid “uploading” of additional warheads onto existing missiles, while urging near-term risk-reduction steps like broader crisis hotlines that currently do not exist for European capitals.