Overview
- The lapse ends legally binding caps and on‑site verification that had limited each side to 1,550 deployed strategic warheads and provided inspections and data exchanges.
- Moscow declared both parties are now free to choose their next steps, said it will act responsibly, and repeated its proposal to informally observe core limits for one year if Washington reciprocates.
- The White House has been noncommittal, with President Donald Trump emphasizing that any successor deal should include China, which Beijing has rejected.
- Verification and transparency mechanisms have been degraded since pandemic-era suspensions and Russia’s 2023 freeze, increasing uncertainty and reliance on national technical means.
- Experts warn the vacuum could enable both sides to upload hundreds of additional warheads over time, as global figures including the UN secretary‑general, NATO and the pope urge restraint and renewed negotiations.