Overview
- Lula tops national first-round scenarios with 39%–40% to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 32%–34%, according to Real Time Big Data fielded Feb 28–Mar 2 (n=2,000; ±2 pts; TSE BR-09353/2026).
- In a head-to-head, Lula registers 42% to Flávio Bolsonaro’s 41%, within the margin of error, with Lula also leading other simulated runoffs and tying at the edge with Ratinho Junior (43%–39%).
- The same national survey reports 44% approval and 51% disapproval of Lula’s government, with 26% rating it good or excellent and 46% poor or very poor.
- In Ceará, Paraná Pesquisas shows Ciro Gomes at 44.5% and Gov. Elmano de Freitas at 35.3% in the first round, and Ciro ahead 51.5%–38.1% in a direct runoff.
- Paraná Pesquisas reports Lula’s approval at 57% and disapproval at 40% among Ceará voters (n=1,500; Feb 25–28; ±2.6 pts; TSE CE-08478/2026).