Overview
- CNN’s Harry Enten highlighted fresh surveys showing Democrats up 27 points on the 2026 House ballot in New York (Siena/CNN) and 28 points in California (PPIC/CNN), far above their 2024 margins.
- In Texas, the generic House ballot shows Republicans ahead by only 1 to 2 points despite President Donald Trump’s 14-point win there in 2024, indicating a sharp shift toward competitiveness.
- A Democratic special-election win in Texas saw Taylor Rehmet defeat Trump-backed Republican Leigh Wambsganss in a longtime GOP state Senate seat, a result Enten said reflects the current environment.
- Prediction-market odds that Republicans finish under 193 House seats have risen to about 26 percent from 8 percent three months ago, signaling growing expectations of substantial Democratic gains.
- Enten said the polling swings put GOP-held districts in New York and California at greater risk and give Democrats a plausible play in Texas, noting a recent rebound among Latino voters nationally where roughly a quarter of Texas voters are Latino.