Overview
- Talarico leads Cornyn 44% to 41% and Paxton 46% to 41% in a Texas Public Opinion Research survey published Tuesday, which polled 1,018 likely voters and has a ±3.3-point margin of error.
- Republicans will choose their nominee in a May 26 runoff between Cornyn and Paxton, with early voting scheduled for May 18 to May 22.
- Following a record $27 million first-quarter haul and more than $40 million raised overall, with FEC reports showing $10 million post-primary and nearly $9.9 million cash on hand, Gov. Greg Abbott urged Republicans to step up fundraising and turnout.
- The poll shows Talarico holding big advantages with Black and Latino voters, leading college-educated Texans, and carrying independents by wide margins at 51%–29% against Cornyn and 53%–28% against Paxton.
- Texas has not elected a Democrat statewide since 1994, and while Cook rates the seat likely Republican, coverage ranges from highlighting Talarico’s coalition to questioning TPOR’s leadership ties to Democrats.