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New Poll Shows Talarico Edging Both Cornyn and Paxton as GOP Runoff Tightens

A new campaign poll puts Talarico narrowly ahead, with the GOP nominee to be decided in a May 26 runoff.

Texas state Rep. James Talarico, D-Austin, a Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate, speaks at a primary election watch party Tuesday, March 3, 2026, in Austin, Texas. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
AUSTIN, TEXAS - MARCH 03: Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) speaks to members of the media at the Austin Marriott Downtown on March 03, 2026 in Austin, Texas. Early results indicate a runoff race between Cornyn and opponent Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. (Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images)
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate, greets supporters during a campaign stop, in Waco, Texas, Monday, March 2, 2026. Tony Gutierrez/AP

Overview

  • Talarico’s Impact Research internal survey finds him up 43%–41% against Cornyn and 44%–43% against Paxton among 900 likely 2026 voters polled March 12–17 (±3.3 points).
  • The same poll reports likely Republican runoff voters prefer Paxton over Cornyn 53%–37% and shows Paxton with stronger favorability than Cornyn among those voters.
  • Independent polling continues to show a close GOP race, with Change Research putting Paxton at 42% to Cornyn’s 39% and Public Policy Polling at 45%–42%.
  • Change Research also tested Trump endorsement scenarios, finding Paxton leads 50%–40% if endorsed by Trump, while Cornyn would lead 44%–41% if he received that endorsement.
  • Cornyn and Paxton advanced to the May 26 Republican runoff after neither cleared 50% in the primary, and Trump has said on Truth Social he will announce an endorsement soon and wants the other candidate to exit.