Overview
- A New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll of 608 likely Maine voters conducted June 19–26 and released Monday shows Democrat Graham Platner leading Republican Sen. Susan Collins 49% to 47%, a gap inside the poll’s ±4.8 percentage‑point margin of error.
- The survey finds sharp demographic splits that will make turnout decisive, with Platner ahead among independents and women but Collins leading non‑college voters by about 58% to 37% and holding strengths with men, rural voters and gun‑owning households.
- Reporting has documented multiple personal controversies about Platner that many voters say affect their judgment, including offensive online posts, a now‑covered tattoo resembling a Nazi‑linked symbol, sexually explicit texts sent while married, and allegations from former partners.
- National groups have already begun heavy advertising and party leaders are publicly divided over whether Democrats should keep Platner as the November nominee with a July 13 Maine deadline to replace a candidate on the ballot approaching.
- If the race remains this close in November, the result could directly influence control of the Senate, reshape national ad spending and make turnout among college‑educated and highly motivated Democratic voters the key to the outcome.