Overview
- A New York Times/Siena poll released June 30 found Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico each at 47 percent among 656 likely Texas voters, producing a statistical tie that several outlets said turns the race into a national contest.
- Recent polls show sharp demographic divides that will shape the outcome: Paxton leads men, older voters and white voters while Talarico leads women, younger voters, Hispanics and independents.
- Paxton’s long record of legal and personal controversies, including a 2015 securities indictment and a 2023 Texas House impeachment followed by a state Senate acquittal, is a central vulnerability Democrats are emphasizing.
- Republicans have mounted rescue efforts after Paxton’s upset of John Cornyn in the GOP runoff and Trump’s endorsement, while Democrats point to Talarico’s fundraising strength and appeal to independents as reasons the race is competitive.
- Strategists warn turnout and outside spending will likely decide the race, with Democrats concerned about low Black voter enthusiasm after the Democratic primary and both campaigns preparing more TV ads and rapid fundraising.