Overview
- A Quantus Insights survey conducted May 11–12 found Ed Gallrein at 48.3% and Rep. Thomas Massie at 43.1% among likely Republican voters, the first public poll to show the challenger ahead.
- Compared with Quantus’s April poll showing Massie up 47% to 38%, the new findings reflect a sharp swing toward Gallrein that signals fast-moving momentum.
- Prediction markets moved after the poll release, with Polymarket and Kalshi shifting to around even odds for Gallrein in a race long seen as leaning toward the incumbent.
- Early voting begins Thursday and the May 19 primary will likely decide the seat in this deeply Republican district, which helps explain why the contest has drawn national focus.
- Late-campaign turbulence includes a former girlfriend’s cash-for-silence accusation that Massie denies and a pro-Massie PAC ad featuring a rainbow Star of David that critics called antisemitic; the ad came from Hold the Line PAC, not Massie’s campaign, as outside spending reported at over $25 million floods the race.