Overview
- More in Common’s voting intention shows Reform on 31%, Plaid Cymru 24%, Labour 20%, Conservatives 13%, Liberal Democrats 6% and Greens 5%.
- The seat model allocates Reform 36 seats, Plaid 26, Labour 21, Conservatives 10, Liberal Democrats 2 and Greens 1.
- Plaid and Labour would total 47 seats, below the reported 49 required to govern, pointing to a possible multi‑party ‘rainbow’ deal.
- The projection splits the map with Reform leading in many south Wales Valleys constituencies and Plaid ahead across much of west and north Wales, with Reform topping 10 of 16 new multi‑member areas.
- The results are based on a survey of 806 Welsh adults from January 30 to February 10, 2026, as a recent YouGov/ITV poll instead put Plaid on course to lead, highlighting conflicting signals.