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New Poll Puts Orbán’s Fidesz Behind Tisza Ahead of April 12 Vote

A power shift could reshape Hungary’s EU posture on Ukraine policy, including Russia sanctions.

Overview

  • In a new Institut Median survey, Tisza leads with 42% support versus 31% for Fidesz when undecided voters are included.
  • Among decided voters, the gap widens to 55% for Tisza against 35% for Fidesz, an eight-point increase in the deficit to 20 points.
  • Median’s findings carry weight after the institute correctly forecast Orbán’s landslide four years ago, though it slightly overestimated opposition strength then.
  • Most other polls also put Tisza ahead, while Fidesz highlights friendlier surveys that critics say come from institutes with ties to the ruling party.
  • Opposition leader Péter Magyar, a former Fidesz member, has driven momentum with anti-corruption claims and late‑2025 protests in Budapest that drew nearly 50,000 people.