Overview
- The Cluster 17 poll for POLITICO, conducted February 11–15, reports Ciotti at 41% and Estrosi at 31%, with Juliette Chesnel-Le Roux at 12%, Mireille Damiano at 10%, and Reconquête’s Cédric Vella at 4%.
- Estrosi’s campaign denounced the survey as a manipulation and said it referred the case to the Commission nationale des sondages, alleging methodological flaws and responses from non‑Nice electors.
- The online, self‑administered study surveyed 937 adults, including 763 registered Nice voters, using quota sampling with sociodemographic and political weighting, with a margin of error of roughly 1.4–3.5 points.
- Cluster 17’s analysis credits Ciotti’s lead to his consolidation of right and far‑right voters, including large shares of 2024 RN (78%) and Reconquête (58%) electorates, and to defections from Estrosi’s 2020 voters (about 42%).
- Both left‑leaning lists could clear the 10% threshold to reach the second round, and Chesnel‑Le Roux has signaled she would maintain her list on March 22, raising the prospect of a three‑way runoff; poll results are a snapshot, not a forecast.